Twins Rotation Almost Set

With about a week left before the start of the season, things almost look to be set in the Twins rotation.

The top, of course, will be Johan Santana, the reigning Cy Young Award winner who is firmly established as the best pitcher in the world. After that, it gets a little fuzzy.

At this point, it looks like Boof Bonser will definitely be in the rotation, which is a good thing, because Boof was really solid at the end of last year. Joining him and Santana will likely be Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson. Both were free-agent pickups, both have uninspiring track records. To be perfectly honest, if either of them develop into a reliable 5th starter, I'll be pleased.

After that, it gets even more fuzzy. It looks like the final spot will be either Carlos Silva's or Matt Garza. Silva is the "veteran" that has been getting hammered on the mound, Garza is the guy that has been pitching better, has much more talent and upside, but is young. If you can't tell, I think Garza should get the spot.

Last year Garza was one of the best Minor League pitchers around, and showed flashes of that at the end of the season. Silva, on the other hand, got consistently shellacked en route to an ERA above 6.

In Spring Training, it's been more of the same. Silva has an ERA above 11 in 16.1 IP, Garza has an ERA of 1.50 in 12 IP. When you put it all together, Garza seems like the no-brainer choice to make the rotation. Hopefully that happens.

Not dead, just sleeping

I know my posts have been scarce here lately, but I can explain. First off, I've been really busy with my other blog.

Secondly, I've been really busy with school and work... lots of tests, and more tests coming up!

Third, I just find it hard to write about baseball when it's not going on... most of my focus right now is on college basketball... I can write when I have stuff to write about (like the playing of the Twins), but when it's Spring Training, or the offseason, I'm just too busy.

So no worries, I'll be back in full swing once the season gets going... just a little scarce for now!

AL Central Preview: Chicago White Sox

The positional previews were a little boring, both to write and (I imagine) boring for the one or two people that might have skimmed them. So it's time to do something different before the start of the year, and that's to preview the other teams in the Central. Let's start with the Sox.

After a World Series title in 2005, 2006 was a disappointing year for the White Six even though they were in contention for the division and wild card throughout the year. With a taste of success a couple of years ago, the Sox will once again be one of the top contenders to get back to the top.

The middle of the lineup will once again be very potent. Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Jermaine Dye all had tremendous seasons at the plate in 2006, and the Sox would be happy if they can just get similar production from the trio. Joe Crede and AJ Pierzynski were also solid behind those guys in the lineup, and they help make the Sox offense so good.

But it's not all good for the Sox offense. Scott Podsednik and Darin Erstad are "gritty" players, but unfortunately they're not very good at getting on base a lot, which is what you need at the top of the order, especially with the mashers behind them. They should just focus on getting on base, and that's not really their games.

Next is pitching. While this is what carried them to the World Series in '05, it was their downfall in 2007. Starters like Mark Buehrle, Jose Conteras, and Jon Garland were all workhorses in 2005, which gave them great depth and consistency from the staff. All 3 suffered a dropoff in 2006. Javier Vazquez was not overly impressive in his first season with Chicago. Freddy Garcia (now gone) struggled as well. So they are counting on Buehrle, Contreras, Garland, and Vazquez to get back into form, and new guy Gavin Floyd to finally reach his potential. That's a big gamble.

In the end, I think the Sox will be a very solid team once again, but the division might be a little too tough. With the Twins, Tigers, and Indians joining the Sox, it is the best division in baseball, and I'm just not sure the Sox have the pitching to get through it.

Position Preview: First Base

With 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau still here, the Twins seem to be in pretty good shape at 1B.

But while the power of Morneau is evident with his 34 HR and 130 RBI, that's just a piece of what makes him such a dangerous hitter. Last year he finally learned how to go with the ball and take it to the opposite field, and the results were staggering. His average finished at .321, over 80 points higher than his average the year before. He also became a more patient hitter, which led to OBP to finish at .375.

But even just looking at the offense is forgetting that he has developed into a very solid defensive first basemen. His height allows him to reach balls that get away from people up high, and he has become very adept at the scoop.

So put it all together, and Morneau looks like he will be in for another great year, and he has finally become a complete offensive and defensive player, and become the player the Twins have hoped he can be.

If he gets hurt (knock on wood), the majority of the playing time would probably go to Jeff Cirillo or Mike Cuddyer. I'll be writing more about them as we get into their normal positions, but just so you're aware, those are the backup options.

Positional Preview: Catchers

If I start these previews now, hopefully I'll be able to finish in time for the start of the season! So I'll start my positional previews with the Catchers.

First, there's Joe Mauer, of course. The man with the new $33 million deal. The reigning MLB Batting Champion. The man that I felt should have been MVP last season. Is there anything that Joe Mauer can't do?

As a 23 year-old catcher, all Joe Mauer did was win the Batting Crown, finish 3rd in the AL in OBP and 7th in the AL in SLG. And the man has not even found his power stroke yet. Seriously, he has an incredible eye at the plate, he's a good doubles hitter (which should develop into more HR power), and oh yeah, he's a Gold Glove caliber defender behind the plate. He's the best catcher in the MLB and should have another great year as long as he stays healthy.

Behind him, Mike Redmond was one of the best backup catchers in the MLB last season. In 179 ABs, he batting an astounding .341. Against lefthanders, he put up an astounding line of 443 AVG/467 OBP/543 SLG/1010 OPS. That's awesome, especially when you're talking about backup catchers, which usually more like Henry Blanco. Also, from all accounts, Redmond is great in the clubhouse, which makes him a perfect backup catcher.

So with Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond, the Twins catching position seems to be in very good hands going into the 2007 season.

Twins Sign Joe Mauer - 4 years, $33 million

Great deal!

The good news: Joe Mauer will definitely be a Minnesota Twin for at least the next 4 seasons.

The better news: The 4th year of this deal would have been his first year of free agency, meaning that unless something happens to Mauer (knock on wood) this is a great deal from a monetary standpoint as well.

With only Mike Cuddyer left as far as arbitration-eligible players, it was good to get one of the young stars locked up for a little longer-term rather than something like the 1-year deal for Morneau.

So great job Terry Ryan, congrats to Joe Mauer for becoming very rich, and congrats to all of us Twins fans for the privilege of watching Joe Mauer playing in a Minnesota Twins uniform!

Twins Ballpark Article

Got an email this morning with a link to an article that I thought was really interesting with regards to the Twins ballpark, suggesting that the two sides may not be all that close to a deal yet... anyway, I found it interesting:

The New Twins Park: A Big Roadblock at Home Plate

Joe Mauer TV Commercial

Minnesota and surrounding areas residents have probably seen this commercial, but I thought I'd post it because it's so awesome. It's the Joe Mauer commercial doing his beat Mean Joe Greene impersonation... but the moral of the story is that Joe Mauer is pretty much good at whatever he does.

How is Bert Blyleven still not in the Hall of Fame?

Just for giggles, I'm going to give you the stats of 2 pitchers... one is in the Hall of Fame and generally regarded by sportswriters as one of the best pitchers of all time. The other is not in the Hall of Fame.

Player A: 324-292 overall record (.524 winning %), 3.19 ERA (3.57 was the League ERA over the same time period), 112 ERA+, 1.25 WHIP, 5714 K in 5386 IP, 2.04 K/BB ratio, 3.07 postseason ERA

Player B: 287-50 overall record (.534 winning %), 3.31 ERA (3.90 was the League ERA over the same time period), 118 ERA+, 1.20 WHIP, 3701 K in 4970 IP, 2.80 K/BB ratio, 2.47 postseason ERA

As you probably guessed, Player B was Bert Blyleven, who is still not in the HOF. Player A is Nolan Ryan, certainly an excellent pitcher, but also one of the most overrated pitchers of all-time.

If you look closely, I'm not sure Ryan is a better pitcher than Blyleven. When Ryan was on, he was great (strikeout record, 9 no-hitters), but he also has thrown more BB than anyone else ever. Ryan has the lower raw ERA, but he did it in a time where ERAs were generally lower, which results in a better ERA+ (ERA in relation to the League with 100 as the average) for Blyleven.

In the end, Nolan Ryan was the better strikeout pitcher and gave up less HRs than Blyleven, while Blyleven had much better control while still maintaining good strikeout dominance (higher K/BB ratio than Ryan. Both were very dominant when they were on their game... Ryan had 61 career shutouts, Blyleven had 60.

But there should be no need for this discussion. Both guys belong in the Hall. So how is Bert Blyleven, one of the top 20 or 30 pitchers EVER not in the Hall of Fame yet? Your guess is as good as mine. Bottom line, Bert Belongs.

Happy New Year!

Obviously I haven't been here too much lately as its the offseason, I've been busy, and there's not a whole lot of Twins talk to go on. But anyway, hopefully you had a grewat 2006, and you'll have an even better 2007!

See you in a couple months (it's almost baseball season)!

Congratulations Justin Morneau!

Honestly, I didn't really think he deserved to actually win the award... I didn't have in my top 5 for AL MVP, but I'm certainly not going to complain.

He may not have been the most deserving candidate, but he had an unbelievable season, especially power-wise, that the Twins have not seen in many moons. It's very safe to say that without him we wouldn't have even sniffed the playoffs. So congratulations Justin Morneau, and if you can repeat the numbers even without winning the hardware next year, well, you'll get no complaints from me.

Congratulations Justin Morneau!

Francisco Liriano to have Tommy John Surgery

By now you've probably heard that Francisco Liriano will have Tommy John surgery and will miss the 2007 season.

This sucks a lot, but I, and most Twins fans have been bracing for this ever since Liriano left the game against Oakland. They tried to just give Liriano rest, and hope that would solve the problems. However, after he experienced more troubles earlier this offseason, and then got another look, they figured Tommy John surgery was the best option.

So it is. If Liriano comes back strong and healthy in 2008, and is able to put the elbow problems behind him, well, this will be well worth the wait.

Torii Hunter wins a Gold Glove

I love the guy, but this is kind of a head-scratcher. He was hurt for part of the year, and when he came back his skills were greatly reduced defensively while he was still nursing the injury. But then again, this is the same award that Rafael Palmeiro won after playing something like 25 games at 1B. But, well, I'm not going to complain. But let's say SBG has this thing covered well.

Anyway, as you've noticed if you've checked this blog for updates, my offseason posting is extremely sporadic. My apologies, with school and my other blog, I don't have the time to update this frequently and find topics to write about in the offseason. So it'll be sporadic offseason posts for me all the way until the start of the 2007 season, where I should pick things back up.

But if you do need Twins talk in the offseason, I recommend these blogs, who seem to be frequently updating still:

Aaron Gleeman
Bat-Girl
Nick & Nick
Seth Speaks
SBG
The Bleacher Bums
Twinkie Town
Viva Rivas!

2006 Final Count for "The Sabean Special"

If you're not familiar with "The Sabean Special," you can click on this link. Basically, anytime Francisco Liriano or Boof Bonser started a game and got the win, combined with Joe Nathan recording the last outs of a game... that was a Sabean Special (created in the spirit of this blog). Anyway, here's the final tally and games where it occurred:

Francisco Liriano:
April 25 - Twins beat Royals 2-1
May 19 - Twins beat Brewers 7-1
May 26 - Twins beat Mariners 3-1
May 31 - Twins beat Angels 7-1
June 11 - Twins beat Orioles 4-0
June 16 - Twins beat Pirates 4-2
June 22 - Twins beat Astros 4-2
July 23 - Twins beat Indians 3-1

Liriano Count: 8

Boof Bonser:
June 24 - Twins beat Cuubs 4-0
September 4 - Twins beat Devil Rays 4-0
September 9 - Twins beat Tigers 2-1
September 25 - Twins beat Royals 8-1

Bonser Count: 4

Total "Sabean Special" Count: 12

And hopefully there will be many more to count next season and beyond!

Trade Luis Castillo

If I was Terry Ryan, this is something I would look into. Trading Luis Castillo.

Don't get me wrong, Castillo did everything the Twins asked him to do this year coming over in the trade from Florida. Castillo was solid at the top of the order, getting on base, taking pitches, and playing decent defense at 2B. But at $5.75 million, he's become too expensive.

Consider, he's getting older, and his knees have been a problem for him, especially playing on turf half of his games. His game has always been predicated on speed, and he simply doesn't have as much of that as he used to, thanks to age and the chronic knee problems. There's also the matter of his defense. At one time he was a Gold Glover. That time has passed. He's not bad out there, but he simply doesn't have the range that he used to have.

And the reason we can trade him is that the Twins have other options. Mainly, two of them:

1) Alexi Casilla. The Twins got him in the JC Romero deal, and he's been superb. He looks like a younger Luis Castillo... not a lot of power, but a good eye, hits for a good average, plays good defense at 2B, and has great speed. However, he may not quite be ready to start in the Bigs, which is ok becuase we have...
2) Nick Punto. He was very good defensively at 3B, but his offensive production there is supbar. He played 2B when he was younger, and that might let him take more advantage of his very solid range.

Plus, we could use money freed up from getting rid of Luis Castillo's contract, Brad Radke's ending contract, etc. to go after a real 3B, of which there are some out there. This is basically a pipe dream, but I would pretty much be able to die happy if the Twins somehow got A-Rod, as Seth talked about a few days ago.

But anyway, there's no time like the present... Castillo's value probably won't ever be higher than it is now for the rest of his career. I hope this isn't all just a pipe dream.

is it really over?

6 months of Twins baseball. A 25-33 start, falling as many as 12.5 games back of the division lead, only to comeback and dramatically take the lead on the final day of the season. A batting champ, the probably Cy Young, and MVP candidates.

All erased in 3 games over the span of 3 games.

Did that really just happen? Can it really be over so quickly? What the heck happened?

I could talk at length about why the Twins lost this series, but I'll stick to this quick analysis, and stop with the negatives. Heck, there wasn't a whole lot of positives for the series. I don't understand how a team that won 96 games could look so bad. But I digress.

I'll just focus on what a fun and exciting season this was for the Twins. The aforementioned 96 wins and AL Central title. But that's just a small part of what made this the most fun season following the Twins of my life. What did I love about these Twins? Well, since you asked:

- Joe Mauer. What else needs to be said? The first catcher to lead the MLB in batting while playing Gold Glove caliber defense behind the plate. At age 23. It was a pleasure to watch Joe play baseball day in and day out.

- Another fantastic season for Johan Cytana. He got the pitching triple crown which all but locks up his 2nd Cy Young award. This should be his 3rd straight Cy Young, but voters are stupid.

- The electricity of Francisco Liriano. When he was on the mound, there was no one better in the MLB this year. Great fastball, great changeup, and an absolutely devastating slider. If he was healthy, things might have been a lot different. Come back healthy Francisco.

- Justin Morneau becoming the star everyone thought he'd be. Everyone knew the power was always there, but he became a very complete hitter, hitting to all fields. One of the most fun guys to watch hit the ball.

- The effort of Torii Hunter. Sure, he can make mistakes (see: Game 2). And he's lost a step defensively. And he can take some bad swings at the plate. But he gives it all whenever he's out there, and there's not much better about baseball than watching him play baseball. Friday may have been his last game in a Twins uniform... if that's the case, thanks for the memories Torii.

- Brad Radke. You can't say enough about this guy. Pitching with a torn labrum is bad enough, but he was also gutting it out with a stress fracture in his throwing shoulder. He couldn't do anything without pain, yet he was pitching great start after start, and truly left everything he had. Thank you Brad Radke, for a great season and a great career.

- Covering everything on Thank You Brian Sabean. I wrote about the Minnesota Twins almost every day for the last 4 months... which made me appreciate the good times more. I don't know if I'll be back next year with TYBS, but hopefully time permits it, because it was really a great experience.

So while the last 3 games were not exactly the storybook ending everyone was hoping for, it was an unbelievable and unforgettable season, and one I won't soon forget. From the division title to winning 96 games to getting back to the playoffs, it was just about everything I could ask for. And with a young team, we might be back here again next year.

Thanks for reading, thanks for letting me ramble, and see you in a few days. While it was a great year that I'll look back fondly on, it's still a tough pill to swallow being swept. So I'll mope for a few days, and start looking forward to next year, where I can only hope for half the excitement this year brought.

3 Reasons We Lost This Series

Obviously things can be broken down deeper, but in my mind, there were three key reasons that not only did we lose, but we got swept. I hate to harp on negatives at the end of the year, but I'll just do it quickly.

1) Pirahnas have no bite
Cheesy headline aside, the so-called "Pirahnas" did little to nothing this series. Luis Castillo, Nick Punto, Jason Bartlett, and Jason Tyner combined to bat .200, with a .289 OBP, and a .225 SLG. Pathetic effort over the 3-game series.

2) Bad hitting with RISP
I don't even know how things finished up here, and it's too depressing to look. All that you need to know is the Twins were 0/18 at one point, and their first hit with RISP was in the 6th inning of Game 3.

3) Bullpen Mismanagement
Joe Nathan, one of the best relievers in the MLB, pitched 2/3 of an inning this series. In Game 1, he should have come in in the 9th instead of Jesse Crain. In Game 3, he should have come in in the 7th inning when there were 2 on and 2 out. Although I suppose I can't blame Gardenhire... he's just doing what all managers do. And It's logic I can't understand. Biggest situation of the game, the Twins had to hold Oakland, and they go with their 4th or 5th best RP. But hey, at least Joe Nathan's rested!

Anyway, not a good series all-around. Oakland played very well, but the Twins practically handed them this on a silver platter. A disappointing end to a great season.

Thank You Brad Radke

The last start didn't go as well as everyone hoped, but a great career for Brad Radke, and then leaving everything he had out there on the field, even with a torn labrum and stress fracture.

In the words of the late, great Jack Buck, "Pardon me while I stand and applaud."

Like a punch to the stomach

That's what it felt like when Torii Hunter dove for the ball and missed. It felt like I had the wind knocked out of me. And apparently, I wasn't alone in that feeling, since the Twins were pretty lifeless after that as well, managing only a bloop single from Bartlett with 2 outs in the 9th the rest of the way.

Anyway, about the rest of the game. You can't say enough about the effort and performance from Boof Bonser. A rookie making his first playoff start, Bonser threw 6 very solid innings, giving up just 2 runs in the 5th. This was a performance worthy of win, but once again the offense couldn't get it done.

However, I did like some things I saw from the offense. Unlike Tuesday, when they flailed at everything, they put together a lot better ABs, taking pitches, fouling pitches off, and making Loaiza work. Unfortunately, this effort was hampered a bit by the HUGE strike zone, but there's not much they can do about that.

The problems with the offense were twofold: they couldn't get anyone on base until there were 2 outs, and they can't hit to save their [playoff] lives once a runner gets into scoring position. After 2 games, the Twins are 0/14 with RISP. And you wonder why they've scored 4 runs in 2 games.

One other comment... Nick Punto has played very well all year, and he continues to supply good defense, but he is just dreadful at the plate right now, and has been for the last month. He's giving away ABs, chasing pitches, and not getting on base. I don't know if this is coincedence or not, but ever since he hit that HR in August he has not been very effective at the plate.

Anyway, maybe this is only fitting, being down 2-0 in the series. After all, the Twins fell way back in the Divison race before crawling back to win it, so maybe they just wouldn't have it any other way. In any event, their work is definitely cut out for them here. Down 2-0 heading back to Oakland, Minnesota will send Brad Radke to the mound on Friday, in only his 2nd start since coming back from the injury. Everyone on the Twins knows that if they lose this game, it will be Brad Radke's final start as an MLB player, which should provide even more motivation, not that they should need any at this point.

The Twins are down, but they're not out. 2-0 is a large deficit, but not insurmountable. If they can continue to get good pitching performances, combined with, I don't know, a hit or two with RISP, they might be able to keep playing baseball into the weekend. If not, it's going to be a long winter thinking about all the mistakes they've made in 2 games.

Well, that was deflating

Gone is the home-field advantage. Gone is the Twins Ace in the Hole, Johan Santana, a man who had not lost a game at home since last year. Gone seemingly are the Twins bats.

So what went wrong? First and foremost, the offense.

Barry Zito is obviously a good pitcher and he had his off-speed stuff working well, but I think a lot of this was because of the Twins approach at the plate. To say that it was bad is an understatement. Simply put, against a guy that did not have good control and struggled locating his fastball, the Twins chased balls out of the zone early in the count, which is why Zito kept such a low pitch count even without great control.

Things started out rocky in the 1st inning. Luis Castillo walked to leadoff the game (which should have been a lesson to other Twins hitters... TAKE SOME PITCHES), and then Punto worked the count to 2-1. Then, i'm not sure if it was a hit & run or what the call was, but Punto swings at a ball out of the zone, Castillo and his bad knee is running, and he's thrown out at 2nd. So instead of having a runner at 1st with no out and a 3-1 count, there's 1 out and it's a 2-2 count. That's a good way to ruin a potentially good inning. And while we're at, will someone please tell Nick Punto to stop sliding into 1st base. I think everyone in the world other than Punto knows that that slows you down.

As far as Gardenhire, there were some questionable calls I thought, but none bigger than going with Jesse Crain in the 9th. Crain has been solid in the 2nd half of the year, but Pat Neshek has been lights out since his callup. Seriously, every single stat says that Neshek is the better pitcher. And it's not like Crain has loads of postseason experience... before this outing he had gotten 1 out in postseason play in his career. This isn't even hindsight bias, I swear... I just don't understand going with Crain over Neshek.

By the way, a memo to the Twins:
Frank Thomas - 3/4
Everyone else - 4/30

As for the game coverage on ESPN, I'll leave it to Bat-Girl:

...but listening to these guys is like listening to the two drunk guys who sit behind you who've seen two games all season and are trying to impress each other with how much they know.... And I know I should get used to it, but this interviewing the managers while the game is going on is disgraceful. If you're borrowing techniques from Fox's coverage of the All-Star Game, it's probably a bad idea.

Sadly, Fox's coverage isn't any better.

Anyway, time to move on and forget about Game 1. Boof Bonser gets the start in Game 2 against Esteban Loaiza, a guy that the Twins have generally hit well against. I have confidence in Boof, but scoring sometime before the 7th inning would be nice too.

In other words, Game 2 would be a perfect time for The Sabean Special!